The 9-3 Valorant curse – Is it real?

by | Jun 16, 2023 | Esports, Valorant | 0 comments

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The 9-3 Valorant curse has plagued the Valorant esports scene record on multiple occasions.

Take for example the match between Team Liquid and Navi on the map Icebox that took place during the playoffs of the VCT EMEA Stage 3 Challengers. Or Gambit Esports taking on 100 Thieves at the VCT Stage 3 Masters in Berlin.

And in the most incredible way imaginable, Gambit Esports defeated Team Vikings in the group stages of the Valorant Champions 2021 tournament. Gambit won nine rounds in a row to win the series, even though the Vikings had a match point.

The ominous nature of the curse manifested once more at the Champions 2022 tournament. During the group stage, both DRX and FunPlus Phoenix battled back from 3-9 deficits to win their respective maps in overtime after coming back from those deficits.

At the end of the first half of each of these maps, the score was 9-3, and the team that had been leading at the beginning of the half went on to lose both the map and the series. Because of this, one of the most enduring superstitions in Valorant is centered on the question of whether or not the 9-3 curse is real.

How frequently does the 9-3 Valorant curse result in a comeback?

In order to determine whether or not the 9-3 curse is genuine, we will need to do some research and look at the statistics to see the percentage of times when a game that finished with a 9-3 half resulted in a comeback for the losing team. The good news for us is that the guys over at Dignitas have already done the math, using game data collected from VCT tournaments dating back to Stage 1.

They pointed out that if the 9-3 curse is true, the frequency of comeback games that begin with a 9-3 half score should be much higher than those that begin with a 7-5 or 8-4 half score.

According to the data that was gathered and made accessible, there were 212 different instances of games in VCT 2021 that had 9-3 halves across all of the zones. At international LAN competitions like the VCT Stage 3 Masters Berlin, there were a total of 28 instances with a 9-3 half.

The ubiquity of the 9-3 curse would have one believe that the majority of these games would have resulted in a win for the losing side; however, this is not the case. It was revealed that at VCT 2021, there were only 25 comebacks after a 9-3 halftime score, which is 11.79 percent of the total.

Only five times did the 9-3 curse come true during LAN competitions; two instances occurred during Stage 3 Masters Berlin, and three instances occurred at Valorant Champions at the end of last year. That works out to 17.8 percent, which is a fraction of a point more than what was recorded for the remainder of the VCT circuit.

Therefore, it does not appear as though a 9-3 half is an automatic loss if you are unfortunate enough to be in the lead, to begin with. This is not the case. Going into the second half of the map with a significant advantage of six rounds almost always results in a victory for the map.


What do you think about the -3 Valorant curse, do you think it’s real?

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